🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Raków Częstochowa edge out Legia Warszawa 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Raków Częstochowa beat Legia Warszawa 3-2 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.78 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.20 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Legia Warszawa outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.03 / defence 0.89 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.13 / defence 1.21, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 51% | Draw 23% | Legia Warszawa 26%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 41%, Legia Warszawa 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Raków Częstochowa 1.74 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Raków Częstochowa win broke the near-deadlock. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights