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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Raków Częstochowa edge out Lechia Gdansk 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Raków Częstochowa beat Lechia Gdansk 2-1 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.93 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.37 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 0.93 / defence 0.95 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.21 / defence 1.24, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 50% | Draw 23% | Lechia Gdansk 27%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 38%, Lechia Gdansk 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.13. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights