🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Raków Częstochowa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lechia Gdansk.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Raków Częstochowa beat Lechia Gdansk 3-1 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.55 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.08 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 0.96 / defence 0.88 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.06 / defence 1.19, drawn from 56/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 48% | Draw 25% | Lechia Gdansk 26%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 27%, Lechia Gdansk 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and conceded here.

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights