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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Raków Częstochowa and Lech Poznan share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Raków Częstochowa and Lech Poznan finished level at 2-2 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.21 xG and Lech Poznan 1.46 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 0.86 / defence 0.99 against Lech Poznan attack 1.22 / defence 0.92, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 31% | Draw 26% | Lech Poznan 43%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 39%, Lech Poznan 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Lech Poznan's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Raków Częstochowa 1.85 PPG, Lech Poznan 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights