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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 6

Kick-off

Wed 24 Sep 2025

17:45

Venue

Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Lech Poznan Win

31%

Raków Częstochowa

3.19

26%

Draw

3.88

43%

Lech Poznan

2.33

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.3%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

10.2%

Away win

1 – 2

8.9%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.21

Raków Częstochowa xG

Total xG

2.66

1.46

Lech Poznan xG

31%
26%
43%
Raków CzęstochowaDrawLech Poznan

3.19

31%

Home win

3.88

26%

Draw

2.33

43%

Away win

Goals Markets

74%

Over 1.5

1.35

26%

Under 1.5

3.85

50%

Over 2.5

2.00

50%

Under 2.5

2.00

28%

Over 3.5

3.57

72%

Under 3.5

1.39

13%

Over 4.5

7.69

87%

Under 4.5

1.15

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

54%

BTTS Yes

1.86

46%

BTTS No

2.16

Clean Sheet

23%

Raków Częstochowa

4.28

30%

Lech Poznan

3.34

Win to Nil

7%

Raków Częstochowa

13.67

13%

Lech Poznan

7.79

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.0 10.2 7.4 3.6 1.3 0.4
1 8.4 12.3 8.9 4.3 1.6 0.5
2 5.1 7.4 5.4 2.6 0.9 0.3
3 2.0 3.0 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1
4 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1
5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.206
λ Away (xG) 1.455
Total xG 2.661
League avg home goals 1.517
League avg away goals 1.204
Raków Częstochowa attack strength 0.863
Raków Częstochowa defence strength 0.994
Lech Poznan attack strength 1.215
Lech Poznan defence strength 0.922
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 41 / 41