Raków Częstochowa 1-0 ŁKS Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 76% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Raków Częstochowa welcome ŁKS Łódź to Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków in Ekstraklasa (matchday 8). Kick-off is Saturday 16 September 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Raków Częstochowa — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Raków Częstochowa have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Raków Częstochowa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 7 matches, ŁKS Łódź stand at 2W 0D 5L — 0.86 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.57 per game is modest, conceding 1.57 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings (14%). Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
ŁKS Łódź's away record over their last 4 away games: 0W 0D 4L (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.86 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On current form, Raków Częstochowa have the edge — a 0.84 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.86) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (last 7 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
ŁKS Łódź in-play and half-time data (last 7 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 57% versus ŁKS Łódź 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 57% | ŁKS Łódź 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 2.21 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.257 / defence 0.833 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.643 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 0.913. Raków Częstochowa carry an above-average attack rating of 1.257 — their 2.21 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. ŁKS Łódź's defence rating of 1.291 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Raków Częstochowa's projected output up. ŁKS Łódź's attack rating of 0.643 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.49. Data: built from Raków Częstochowa's last 39 games and ŁKS Łódź's last 7.
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 76% | Draw 18% | ŁKS Łódź 6%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.31 | Draw 5.68 | ŁKS Łódź 16.47. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (76%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — ŁKS Łódź's lower xG of 0.49 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa as the most likely outcome at 76% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Raków Częstochowa 40% (last 10 home games) | ŁKS Łódź 25% (last 4 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 8 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 76% | Draw 18% | ŁKS Łódź 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Raków Częstochowa 2.21 / ŁKS Łódź 0.49 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.257 / def 0.833 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.643 / def 1.291 | league avg home 1.360 / away 0.913 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.49
ŁKS Łódź xG
35%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź FAQs
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź?
Raków Częstochowa 1 - 0 ŁKS Łódź.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 8) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 76% chance of winning, ŁKS Łódź a 6% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and ŁKS Łódź will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (1.26) and ŁKS Łódź's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 2.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, ŁKS Łódź's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 0.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Raków Częstochowa's last 39 games and ŁKS Łódź's last 7 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.9%), 3-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
76%
1.31
18%
5.68
6%
16.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
3 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.70
0.49
ŁKS Łódź xG
1.31
76%
Home win
5.68
18%
Draw
16.47
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
61%
1.63
11%
9.11
Win to Nil
47%
2.14
1%
150.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 7.3 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 16.4 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 12.1 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and ŁKS Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.49 for ŁKS Łódź, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 7 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 4W 2D 1L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
ŁKS Łódź's form line: 2W 0D 5L from 7 games, 0.86 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 1.14 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against ŁKS Łódź.
Venue Form
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 2.50 PPG from their last 4 home games (3W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Raków Częstochowa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, ŁKS Łódź have gone 0W 0D 4L from their last 4 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of ŁKS Łódź's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; ŁKS Łódź are on 0.57 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ŁKS Łódź in 29%.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
ŁKS Łódź
Early Season
Raków Częstochowa (Home) vs ŁKS Łódź (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
ŁKS Łódź
Early Season
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź Form FAQs
What form are Raków Częstochowa and ŁKS Łódź in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 games (2.00 PPG), while ŁKS Łódź have gone 2W 0D 5L in their last 7 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or ŁKS Łódź away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.50 PPG; ŁKS Łódź away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or ŁKS Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, ŁKS Łódź in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2023. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 17 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Raków Częstochowa
1
Draws
0
ŁKS Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and ŁKS Łódź?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Raków Częstochowa have won 1, ŁKS Łódź have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and ŁKS Łódź last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 March 2024: ŁKS Łódź 1-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and ŁKS Łódź?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Raków Częstochowa 25% BTTS, ŁKS Łódź 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Raków Częstochowa) and 50% (ŁKS Łódź).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; ŁKS Łódź in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / ŁKS Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Raków Częstochowa and ŁKS Łódź matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 25% of ŁKS Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Raków Częstochowa and ŁKS Łódź matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 50% of ŁKS Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and ŁKS Łódź matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 100% of ŁKS Łódź's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Raków Częstochowa edge out ŁKS Łódź 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat ŁKS Łódź 1-0 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 2.21 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.49 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Raków Częstochowa fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.26 / defence 0.83 against ŁKS Łódź attack 0.64 / defence 1.29, drawn from 39/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 76% | Draw 18% | ŁKS Łódź 6%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 76%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 57%, ŁKS Łódź 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (7 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (7 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward. ŁKS Łódź (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.