Piast Gliwice 1-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 39%, yet in-form Legia Warszawa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa meet at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa (matchday 8). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Piast Gliwice's record over their last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Piast Gliwice's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Piast Gliwice are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Legia Warszawa have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Legia Warszawa are 1.00 PPG clear of Piast Gliwice over their recent games (2.20 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Piast Gliwice, 2 for Legia Warszawa and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 19 Feb 2023, ended Piast Gliwice 0–1 Legia Warszawa — a Legia Warszawa win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Piast Gliwice half-time and goal-timing data (last 39 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Legia Warszawa half-time and goal-timing data (last 39 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 46% versus Legia Warszawa 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 28% | Legia Warszawa 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.07 xG and Legia Warszawa 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.839 / defence 0.974 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.988 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 0.907. Data: built from Piast Gliwice's last 41 games and Legia Warszawa's last 39.
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 39% | Draw 33% | Legia Warszawa 28%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.59 | Draw 3.00 | Legia Warszawa 3.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Legia Warszawa (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Piast Gliwice's last 10 home games and Legia Warszawa's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Piast Gliwice 50% (last 10 home games) | Legia Warszawa 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 8 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 39% | Draw 33% | Legia Warszawa 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Piast Gliwice 1.07 / Legia Warszawa 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.839 / def 0.974 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.988 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.347 / away 0.907 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Legia Warszawa xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa FAQs
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa?
Piast Gliwice 1 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 8) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 39% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Piast Gliwice's attack at 0.84x the league average against Legia Warszawa's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (0.99x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from Piast Gliwice's last 41 games and Legia Warszawa's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
39%
2.59
33%
3.00
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
1.94
0.87
Legia Warszawa xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
10%
10.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 0.87 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 39 outings, Piast Gliwice have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 15W 13D 11L record — D-W-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Legia Warszawa's form line: 23W 10D 6L from 39 games, 2.03 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Legia Warszawa are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Piast Gliwice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Piast Gliwice have posted 1.28 PPG from their last 18 home games (6W 5D 7L).
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 7W 5D 6L from their last 18 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Legia Warszawa's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.74 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Legia Warszawa in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
Piast Gliwice (Home) vs Legia Warszawa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa Form FAQs
What form are Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 15W 13D 11L in their last 39 games (1.49 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 23W 10D 6L in their last 39 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Legia Warszawa's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.28 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Piast Gliwice have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Piast Gliwice
2
Draws
3
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Piast Gliwice have won 5, Legia Warszawa have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Piast Gliwice 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Legia Warszawa see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 56%, Legia Warszawa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Piast Gliwice) and 44% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa in 33%; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 33% of games; Legia Warszawa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 44% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 44% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.07 xG and Legia Warszawa 0.87 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.84 / defence 0.97 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.99 / defence 0.95, drawn from 41/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 39% | Draw 33% | Legia Warszawa 28%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 28%, Legia Warszawa 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.49. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.