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Shock result as Jagiellonia defy the odds to beat Raków Częstochowa 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jagiellonia beat Raków Częstochowa 1-2 at zondacrypto Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.68 xG and Jagiellonia 0.95 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jagiellonia outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.16 / defence 0.84 against Jagiellonia attack 0.91 / defence 0.95, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 54% | Draw 25% | Jagiellonia 21%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Jagiellonia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 42%, Jagiellonia 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Jagiellonia's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Raków Częstochowa 1.80 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights