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Prediction vindicated as Gornik Zabrze edge out Raków Częstochowa 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gornik Zabrze beat Raków Częstochowa 0-1 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.25 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.37 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Raków Częstochowa fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 0.99 / defence 1.07 against Gornik Zabrze attack 1.08 / defence 0.78, drawn from 39/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 34% | Draw 27% | Gornik Zabrze 39%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 41%, Gornik Zabrze 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.49. Form was overturned, with Gornik Zabrze winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights