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Prediction vindicated as Raków Częstochowa edge out Gornik Zabrze 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Raków Częstochowa beat Gornik Zabrze 1-0 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.48 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.21 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gornik Zabrze landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 0.96 / defence 1.00 against Gornik Zabrze attack 1.08 / defence 1.09, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 43% | Draw 27% | Gornik Zabrze 30%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 40%, Gornik Zabrze 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Raków Częstochowa 1.67 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Raków Częstochowa win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights