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Dominant Raków Częstochowa run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Cracovia Krakow.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Raków Częstochowa beat Cracovia Krakow 4-1 at zondacrypto Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.12 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.68 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 0.85 / defence 0.82 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.74 / defence 0.92, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 45% | Draw 33% | Cracovia Krakow 22%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 40%, Cracovia Krakow 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Raków Częstochowa 1.76 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Raków Częstochowa win broke the near-deadlock. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights