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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Raków Częstochowa run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Arka Gdynia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Raków Częstochowa beat Arka Gdynia 3-0 at zondacrypto Arena, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.95 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.83 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Arka Gdynia landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.01 / defence 0.85 against Arka Gdynia attack 0.83 / defence 1.40, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 63% | Draw 23% | Arka Gdynia 14%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 46%, Arka Gdynia 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Arka Gdynia's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights