Radomiak Radom 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 11 as Radomiak Radom welcome Zaglebie Lubin to Stadion Radomiaka. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 October 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Radomiaka this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at Stadion Radomiaka than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zaglebie Lubin stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Radomiak Radom at 1.20 PPG versus Zaglebie Lubin's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Radomiak Radom register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Zaglebie Lubin have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 7 encounters against Radomiak Radom's 2 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Zaglebie Lubin have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 70% and Zaglebie Lubin 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 63% | Zaglebie Lubin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.75 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.154 / defence 0.941 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.995 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.220. Data: 44 Radomiak Radom games / 43 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 51% | Draw 25% | Zaglebie Lubin 24%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Zaglebie Lubin 4.17. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 70% | Zaglebie Lubin 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Oct 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 51% | Draw 25% | Zaglebie Lubin 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.75 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.154 / def 0.941 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.995 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Zaglebie Lubin xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 4 October 2025 at Stadion Radomiaka.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Radomiak Radom 3 - 1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 51% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (7 meetings): Radomiak Radom 2W | Draws 0 | Zaglebie Lubin 5W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Zaglebie Lubin's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
51%
1.96
25%
4.04
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.90
1.14
Zaglebie Lubin xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
4%
23.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.14 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 43 games, going 13W 11D 19L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-D. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.14 PPG from 43 outings (13W 10D 20L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.16 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 9W 6D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Radomiak Radom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 0.90 points per game from 21 outings (5W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.23 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 13W 11D 19L in their last 43 games (1.16 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 13W 10D 20L in their last 43 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.57 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2022, when Zaglebie Lubin won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
6
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Zaglebie Lubin have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Radomiak Radom 0-0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 71%, Zaglebie Lubin 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Radomiak Radom) and 43% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Zaglebie Lubin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Radomiak Radom's games and 52% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 43% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Zaglebie Lubin 3-1 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.75 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.14 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.15 / defence 0.94 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.99 / defence 0.97, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 51% | Draw 25% | Zaglebie Lubin 24%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 63%, Zaglebie Lubin 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.16 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.