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Shock result as Zaglebie Lubin defy the odds to beat Radomiak Radom 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zaglebie Lubin beat Radomiak Radom 0-1 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.53 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.96 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Radomiak Radom fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.00 / defence 0.98 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.83 / defence 1.04, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 50% | Draw 26% | Zaglebie Lubin 24%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Zaglebie Lubin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 55%, Zaglebie Lubin 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.20 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights