🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock finished level at 1-1 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.83 xG and Wisla Plock 0.94 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Radomiak Radom fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.17 / defence 0.96 against Wisla Plock attack 0.83 / defence 0.94, drawn from 46/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 58% | Draw 24% | Wisla Plock 18%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 73%, Wisla Plock 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.

Wisla Plock's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights