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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 58%, yet in-form Wisla Plock provide a compelling counter-argument — this Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 13 as Radomiak Radom welcome Wisla Plock to Stadion im. Braci Czachorów. Kick-off is set for Monday 27 October 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Plock have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock's away record: 1W 2D 1L from 4 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.25 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Wisla Plock's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Radomiak Radom's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Radomiak Radom, 1 for Wisla Plock and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Radomiak Radom trading profile (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Wisla Plock trading profile (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 82% and Wisla Plock 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 73% | Wisla Plock 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.83 xG and Wisla Plock 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.169 / defence 0.960 | Wisla Plock attack 0.830 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.173. Data: 46 Radomiak Radom games / 11 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 58% | Draw 24% | Wisla Plock 18%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Wisla Plock 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Radomiak Radom (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 58% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wisla Plock (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 70% | Wisla Plock 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion im. Braci Czachorów • Kick-off: Monday 27 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (4 meetings): Radomiak Radom 1W | Draws 2 | Wisla Plock 1W • Goals trend: 1.75 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Radomiak Radom 4 – 3 Wisla Plock • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 0% | Win rates: Radomiak Radom 25% / Draw 50% / Wisla Plock 25% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 58% / draw 24% / away 18% • Goals contradiction: H2H averages only 1.75 goals/game but Poisson total xG is 2.77 (52% Over probability) — this season's attack strengths have improved relative to the historical pattern • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 52% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-L • Wisla Plock (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-W • Radomiak Radom home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | CS 2 • Wisla Plock away split: 1.25 PPG from 4 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | CS 0 • Form edge: Wisla Plock lead by 0.70 PPG (1.80 vs 1.10) • xG vs form (Radomiak Radom): Poisson xG of 1.83 aligns with form scoring rate of 2.00 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Wisla Plock): Poisson xG of 0.94 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.00 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.0 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.77 (52% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Radomiak Radom 7/10, Wisla Plock 3/4; Poisson BTTS probability 52% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Wisla Plock on PPG but Poisson rates Radomiak Radom higher (58% vs 18% for Wisla Plock) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 58% | Draw 24% | Wisla Plock 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.83 / Wisla Plock 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.169 / def 0.960 | Wisla Plock attack 0.830 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (58%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Wisla Plock xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 27 October 2025 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 1 Wisla Plock.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 58% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock?
• Record (4 meetings): Radomiak Radom 1W | Draws 2 | Wisla Plock 1W • Goals trend: 1.75 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Radomiak Radom 4 – 3 Wisla Plock • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 0% | Win rates: Radomiak Radom 25% / Draw 50% / Wisla Plock 25% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 58% / draw 24% / away 18% • Goals contradiction: H2H averages only 1.75 goals/game but Poisson total xG is 2.77 (52% Over probability) — this season's attack strengths have improved relative to the historical pattern • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 52% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock in?
• Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-L • Wisla Plock (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-W • Radomiak Radom home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | CS 2 • Wisla Plock away split: 1.25 PPG from 4 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | CS 0 • Form edge: Wisla Plock lead by 0.70 PPG (1.80 vs 1.10) • xG vs form (Radomiak Radom): Poisson xG of 1.83 aligns with form scoring rate of 2.00 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Wisla Plock): Poisson xG of 0.94 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.00 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.0 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.77 (52% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Radomiak Radom 7/10, Wisla Plock 3/4; Poisson BTTS probability 52% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Wisla Plock on PPG but Poisson rates Radomiak Radom higher (58% vs 18% for Wisla Plock) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture