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Prediction vindicated as Radomiak Radom edge out Widzew Łódź 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Radomiak Radom beat Widzew Łódź 2-1 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.15 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.93 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.95 / defence 0.95 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.89 / defence 0.84, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 40% | Draw 32% | Widzew Łódź 28%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 60%, Widzew Łódź 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.21 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights