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Dominant Radomiak Radom run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Pogon Szczecin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Radomiak Radom beat Pogon Szczecin 5-1 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.55 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.39 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.04 / defence 1.01 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.04 / defence 1.03, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 41% | Draw 25% | Pogon Szczecin 34%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 62%, Pogon Szczecin 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Radomiak Radom winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights