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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 1

Kick-off

Sun 20 Jul 2025

19:15

Venue

Stadion Radomiaka

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Radomiak Radom Win

41%

Radomiak Radom

2.42

25%

Draw

4.08

34%

Pogon Szczecin

2.93

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.4%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

8.8%

Home win

1 – 0

8.2%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.55

Radomiak Radom xG

Total xG

2.93

1.39

Pogon Szczecin xG

41%
25%
34%
Radomiak RadomDrawPogon Szczecin

2.42

41%

Home win

4.08

25%

Draw

2.93

34%

Away win

Goals Markets

79%

Over 1.5

1.27

21%

Under 1.5

4.76

56%

Over 2.5

1.79

44%

Under 2.5

2.27

34%

Over 3.5

2.94

66%

Under 3.5

1.52

17%

Over 4.5

5.88

83%

Under 4.5

1.20

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

59%

BTTS Yes

1.69

41%

BTTS No

2.44

Clean Sheet

25%

Radomiak Radom

4.00

21%

Pogon Szczecin

4.70

Win to Nil

10%

Radomiak Radom

9.68

7%

Pogon Szczecin

13.75

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.3 7.4 5.1 2.4 0.8 0.2
1 8.2 11.4 7.9 3.7 1.3 0.4
2 6.4 8.8 6.1 2.8 1.0 0.3
3 3.3 4.6 3.2 1.5 0.5 0.1
4 1.3 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1
5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.547
λ Away (xG) 1.386
Total xG 2.933
League avg home goals 1.446
League avg away goals 1.310
Radomiak Radom attack strength 1.038
Radomiak Radom defence strength 1.015
Pogon Szczecin attack strength 1.042
Pogon Szczecin defence strength 1.031
Data phase PrevSeason
Games used (H/A) 34 / 34