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Prediction vindicated as Radomiak Radom edge out Piast Gliwice 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Radomiak Radom beat Piast Gliwice 1-0 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.73 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.11 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Piast Gliwice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.24 / defence 1.04 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.90 / defence 0.90, drawn from 42/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 52% | Draw 24% | Piast Gliwice 24%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 62%, Piast Gliwice 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.15 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights