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Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Regular Season - 27, as Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.62 xG and Motor Lublin 1.20 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.01 / defence 1.00 against Motor Lublin attack 1.10 / defence 1.12, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 46% | Draw 27% | Motor Lublin 27%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 62%, Motor Lublin 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Motor Lublin's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.23 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights