Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lech Poznan (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Radomiak Radom face Lech Poznan.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Lech Poznan travel to to take on Radomiak Radom. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2027, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's home record at : 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lech Poznan have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Lech Poznan have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Lech Poznan's 2.30 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Radomiak Radom's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Lech Poznan, who boast 6 victories compared to 1 for Radomiak Radom.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2026, ended 1–5 with Lech Poznan winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Lech Poznan have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Lech Poznan in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 67% and Lech Poznan 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 60% | Lech Poznan 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.27 xG and Lech Poznan 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.836 / defence 1.057 | Lech Poznan attack 1.125 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.306. Data: 43 Radomiak Radom games / 42 Lech Poznan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 28% | Draw 32% | Lech Poznan 40%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Lech Poznan 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lech Poznan at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lech Poznan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 80% | Lech Poznan 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 28% | Draw 32% | Lech Poznan 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.27 / Lech Poznan 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.836 / def 1.057 | Lech Poznan attack 1.125 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Lech Poznan xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 28% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan?
Record (10 meetings): Radomiak Radom 1W | Draws 3 | Lech Poznan 6W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Lech Poznan (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 0.84x the league average against Lech Poznan's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lech Poznan's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
28%
3.61
32%
3.13
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.83
1.55
Lech Poznan xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
6%
17.04
11%
8.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.55 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Radomiak Radom have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 12W 13D 17L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lech Poznan's form line: 22W 13D 7L from 42 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Lech Poznan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lech Poznan are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Radomiak Radom.
Venue Form
On home soil, Radomiak Radom have posted 1.60 PPG from 20 outings (9W 5D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Radomiak Radom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 11W 5D 4L from 20 away games — 1.90 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.88 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Lech Poznan in 67%.
Last 42 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 12W 13D 17L in their last 42 games (1.17 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 22W 13D 7L in their last 42 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Lech Poznan away?
Lech Poznan's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.60 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Lech Poznan have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2026, when Lech Poznan won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Lech Poznan specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Radomiak Radom
3
Draws
6
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 1, Lech Poznan have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Lech Poznan 5-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 65%, Lech Poznan 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Radomiak Radom) and 55% (Lech Poznan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Lech Poznan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Radomiak Radom's games and 55% of Lech Poznan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Radomiak Radom's matches and 55% of Lech Poznan's.
Do Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lech Poznan in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.