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Korona Kielce cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Radomiak Radom.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Korona Kielce beat Radomiak Radom 0-2 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.68 xG and Korona Kielce 1.05 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Radomiak Radom fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Korona Kielce outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.27 / defence 0.85 against Korona Kielce attack 1.04 / defence 0.87, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 51% | Draw 26% | Korona Kielce 23%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Korona Kielce win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 66%, Korona Kielce 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Korona Kielce's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.28 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Korona Kielce win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights