Radomiak Radom 4-0 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 40%, yet in-form Korona Kielce provide a compelling counter-argument — this Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Radomiaka plays host to Radomiak Radom versus Korona Kielce in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Friday 20 September 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Radomiak Radom have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Radomiaka, Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 0D 7L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Korona Kielce's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Korona Kielce's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Korona Kielce arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Korona Kielce hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2024, ended 0–4 with Korona Kielce winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Korona Kielce have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Korona Kielce — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 51% versus Korona Kielce 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 56% | Korona Kielce 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.30 xG and Korona Kielce 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.982 / defence 1.312 | Korona Kielce attack 0.811 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.044. Data: 41 Radomiak Radom games / 42 Korona Kielce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 40% | Draw 28% | Korona Kielce 31%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Korona Kielce 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Korona Kielce (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Radomiak Radom 70% | Korona Kielce 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka • Kick-off: Friday 20 Sep 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 40% | Draw 28% | Korona Kielce 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.30 / Korona Kielce 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.982 / def 1.312 | Korona Kielce attack 0.811 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Korona Kielce xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 20 September 2024 at Stadion Radomiaka.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce?
Radomiak Radom 4 - 0 Korona Kielce.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 40% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce?
Record (4 meetings): Radomiak Radom 0W | Draws 1 | Korona Kielce 3W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Korona Kielce (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Korona Kielce's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Korona Kielce's attack (0.81x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
40%
2.47
28%
3.53
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.41
1.11
Korona Kielce xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
13%
7.51
9%
11.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.11 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 41 games, going 12W 8D 21L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Korona Kielce sit at 1.12 PPG from 41 outings (10W 16D 15L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.12 for Korona Kielce. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 5W 5D 10L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Korona Kielce have taken 0.75 points per game from 20 outings (2W 9D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.10 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
Korona Kielce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 12W 8D 21L in their last 41 games (1.07 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 10W 16D 15L in their last 41 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Korona Kielce away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.00 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Korona Kielce go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Korona Kielce won 4-0 on 19 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
5
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce?
From 8 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 2, Korona Kielce have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Radomiak Radom 0-2 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce?
Korona Kielce have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 65%, Korona Kielce 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Radomiak Radom) and 35% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 30% of games; Korona Kielce in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Korona Kielce?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Radomiak Radom's games and 50% of Korona Kielce's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 35% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Korona Kielce in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Radomiak Radom run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Korona Kielce.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Korona Kielce 4-0 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.30 xG and Korona Kielce 1.11 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Korona Kielce landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.98 / defence 1.31 against Korona Kielce attack 0.81 / defence 0.90, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 40% | Draw 28% | Korona Kielce 31%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 56%, Korona Kielce 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.07 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.