Radomiak Radom 0-2 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Radomiaka plays host to Radomiak Radom versus Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Radomiak Radom have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Radomiaka, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jagiellonia (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Radomiak Radom, 1.60 for Jagiellonia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jagiellonia in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Radomiak Radom 1W, Jagiellonia 1W, 3D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 2–3 with Jagiellonia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Jagiellonia — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 41% versus Jagiellonia 72%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 43% | Jagiellonia 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.51 xG and Jagiellonia 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.910 / defence 1.218 | Jagiellonia attack 1.357 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.143. Jagiellonia have an above-average attack strength of 1.357 — the away xG of 1.89 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Radomiak Radom games / 58 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 30% | Draw 25% | Jagiellonia 45%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Jagiellonia 2.22. Jagiellonia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 60% | Jagiellonia 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 30% | Draw 25% | Jagiellonia 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.51 / Jagiellonia 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.910 / def 1.218 | Jagiellonia attack 1.357 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Jagiellonia xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Stadion Radomiaka.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia?
Radomiak Radom 0 - 2 Jagiellonia.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 30% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia?
Record (5 meetings): Radomiak Radom 1W | Draws 3 | Jagiellonia 1W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Jagiellonia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (1.36x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.89.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
30%
3.38
25%
4.01
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
3.40
1.89
Jagiellonia xG
3.38
30%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
15%
6.61
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
4%
22.33
10%
9.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.89 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 58 games, going 20W 15D 23L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.48 PPG from 58 outings (22W 20D 16L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.48 for Jagiellonia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 8W 9D 12L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 1.00 points per game from 29 outings (5W 14D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jagiellonia's season.
Attack vs Defence
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.76 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 72%.
Last 58 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 20W 15D 23L in their last 58 games (1.29 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 22W 20D 16L in their last 58 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Jagiellonia away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.14 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 5-0 on 2 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Radomiak Radom
4
Draws
5
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 1, Jagiellonia have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 45%, Jagiellonia 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Radomiak Radom) and 59% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Radomiak Radom's games and 76% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 59% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Radomiak Radom 0-2 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.51 xG and Jagiellonia 1.89 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Radomiak Radom fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.91 / defence 1.22 against Jagiellonia attack 1.36 / defence 1.17, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 30% | Draw 25% | Jagiellonia 45%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 43%, Jagiellonia 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.29 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.