Legia Warszawa 3-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Piast Gliwice make the trip to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 March 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Legia Warszawa (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Piast Gliwice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Legia Warszawa, 1.20 for Piast Gliwice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Piast Gliwice in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Legia Warszawa 2W, Piast Gliwice 2W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Legia Warszawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 52% versus Piast Gliwice 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 50% | Piast Gliwice 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.59 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.029 / defence 0.958 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.862 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.138. Data: 58 Legia Warszawa games / 58 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 50% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 20%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Piast Gliwice 5.00. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 70% | Piast Gliwice 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Mar 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 50% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.59 / Piast Gliwice 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.029 / def 0.958 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.862 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Piast Gliwice xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice?
Legia Warszawa 3 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 50% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice?
Record (5 meetings): Legia Warszawa 2W | Draws 1 | Piast Gliwice 2W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (1.03) and Piast Gliwice's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Piast Gliwice's attack (0.86x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
50%
1.99
30%
3.38
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.53
0.94
Piast Gliwice xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
4%
24.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.9 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.94 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 29W 17D 12L from 58 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice, meanwhile, have gone 19W 21D 18L across 58 games — 1.34 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Legia Warszawa by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Piast Gliwice heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 18W 9D 2L from 29 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Piast Gliwice's away record stands at 9W 12D 8L across 29 trips, a 1.34 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.03 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 29W 17D 12L in their last 58 games (1.79 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 19W 21D 18L in their last 58 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 2.17 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Piast Gliwice have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Piast Gliwice won 4-1 on 24 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Legia Warszawa
1
Draws
6
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Piast Gliwice have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Legia Warszawa 0-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 62%, Piast Gliwice 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Legia Warszawa) and 21% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Piast Gliwice in 34%; Piast Gliwice in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 41% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 21% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Piast Gliwice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Piast Gliwice 3-1 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.59 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.94 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Legia Warszawa beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.86 / defence 1.11, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 50% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 20%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 50%, Piast Gliwice 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.34. Form held, and they took the win. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.