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Dominant Radomiak Radom run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Gornik Zabrze.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Radomiak Radom beat Gornik Zabrze 4-0 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.50 xG and Gornik Zabrze 0.92 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gornik Zabrze landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.19 / defence 0.83 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.88 / defence 0.77, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 49% | Draw 30% | Gornik Zabrze 21%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 66%, Gornik Zabrze 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.26 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights