🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as GKS Katowice defy the odds to beat Radomiak Radom 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GKS Katowice beat Radomiak Radom 0-1 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.71 xG and GKS Katowice 1.31 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Radomiak Radom fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.19 / defence 1.01 against GKS Katowice attack 1.11 / defence 0.99, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 45% | Draw 27% | GKS Katowice 28%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual GKS Katowice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 62%, GKS Katowice 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

GKS Katowice's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.25 PPG, GKS Katowice 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GKS Katowice win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights