Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice – Match Report

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Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.88 xG and GKS Katowice 1.59 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Radomiak Radom fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.04 / defence 1.10 against GKS Katowice attack 1.18 / defence 1.22, drawn from 50/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 45% | Draw 22% | GKS Katowice 33%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 59%, GKS Katowice 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

GKS Katowice's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 0.94 PPG, GKS Katowice 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights