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Dominant Radomiak Radom run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cracovia Krakow.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Radomiak Radom beat Cracovia Krakow 3-0 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.78 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.30 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cracovia Krakow landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.14 / defence 0.97 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.13 / defence 0.98, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 47% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 26%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 64%, Cracovia Krakow 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.21 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights