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Shock result as Stal Mielec defy the odds to beat Puszcza Niepołomice 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stal Mielec beat Puszcza Niepołomice 2-3 at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 2.31 xG and Stal Mielec 1.65 xG, a combined 3.97. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Stal Mielec outscored their 1.65 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.14 / defence 1.32 against Stal Mielec attack 1.00 / defence 1.32, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 53% | Draw 20% | Stal Mielec 27%, with Puszcza Niepołomice to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual Stal Mielec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 42%, Stal Mielec 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Stal Mielec's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Puszcza Niepołomice 1.03 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stal Mielec win broke the near-deadlock. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights