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Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Puszcza Niepołomice 4-5.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pogon Szczecin beat Puszcza Niepołomice 4-5 at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 1.26 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.35 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 4-5 for 9 actual goals. Puszcza Niepołomice beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pogon Szczecin outscored their 1.35 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.98 / defence 1.08 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.03 / defence 0.88, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 35% | Draw 26% | Pogon Szczecin 39%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 40%, Pogon Szczecin 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights