Puszcza Niepołomice 2-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Puszcza Niepołomice vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 25 as Puszcza Niepołomice welcome Piast Gliwice to Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 March 2025 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Puszcza Niepołomice stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Piast Gliwice have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Puszcza Niepołomice) versus 1.30 (Piast Gliwice). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Puszcza Niepołomice, 1 for Piast Gliwice and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Puszcza Niepołomice in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Puszcza Niepołomice 53% versus Piast Gliwice 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Puszcza Niepołomice 36% | Piast Gliwice 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 0.81 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.809 / defence 1.115 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.923 / defence 0.705. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.200. Piast Gliwice's defence strength of 0.705 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 Puszcza Niepołomice games / 58 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 24% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 46%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Piast Gliwice 2.17. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Piast Gliwice as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Puszcza Niepołomice 50% | Piast Gliwice 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Mar 2025, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 24% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 39% | xG Puszcza Niepołomice 0.81 / Piast Gliwice 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.809 / def 1.115 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.923 / def 0.705 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Piast Gliwice xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Puszcza Niepołomice vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach.
What was the final score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Piast Gliwice?
Puszcza Niepołomice 2 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach.
What competition is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Puszcza Niepołomice vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 24% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Puszcza Niepołomice and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Puszcza Niepołomice vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Piast Gliwice?
Record (3 meetings): Puszcza Niepołomice 1W | Draws 1 | Piast Gliwice 1W.
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Piast Gliwice in?
Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Puszcza Niepołomice's attack at 0.81x the league average against Piast Gliwice's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Puszcza Niepołomice's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
24%
4.11
30%
3.39
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Total xG
2.04
1.24
Piast Gliwice xG
4.11
24%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
7%
14.14
21%
4.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 16.0 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Puszcza Niepołomice and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.24 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Puszcza Niepołomice's recent record stands at 14W 20D 24L from 58 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Puszcza Niepołomice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice, meanwhile, have gone 17W 25D 16L across 58 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Puszcza Niepołomice on 1.07 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Puszcza Niepołomice have managed 10W 12D 6L from 28 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Puszcza Niepołomice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Piast Gliwice's away record stands at 7W 11D 10L across 28 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Puszcza Niepołomice are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.09 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 14W 20D 24L in their last 58 games (1.07 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 17W 25D 16L in their last 58 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Puszcza Niepołomice at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Puszcza Niepołomice's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Puszcza Niepołomice at home: 1.50 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Puszcza Niepołomice or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Puszcza Niepołomice have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Puszcza Niepołomice's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Puszcza Niepołomice
1
Draws
1
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Piast Gliwice?
From 4 meetings on record, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 2, Piast Gliwice have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Puszcza Niepołomice and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Puszcza Niepołomice 2-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Puszcza Niepołomice and Piast Gliwice?
Puszcza Niepołomice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Puszcza Niepołomice 64%, Piast Gliwice 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 46% for Puszcza Niepołomice and 21% for Piast Gliwice.
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Puszcza Niepołomice home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Puszcza Niepołomice play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent matches and 43% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent games and 21% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Puszcza Niepołomice and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Puszcza Niepołomice have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Puszcza Niepołomice defy the odds to beat Piast Gliwice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Puszcza Niepołomice beat Piast Gliwice 2-1 at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 0.81 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.24 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Puszcza Niepołomice beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.81 / defence 1.11 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.92 / defence 0.70, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 24% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 46%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Puszcza Niepołomice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 36%, Piast Gliwice 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Puszcza Niepołomice 1.07 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Puszcza Niepołomice win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.