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Shock result as Motor Lublin defy the odds to beat Puszcza Niepołomice 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Motor Lublin beat Puszcza Niepołomice 0-1 at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 1.71 xG and Motor Lublin 1.17 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Puszcza Niepołomice fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.96 / defence 1.12 against Motor Lublin attack 0.90 / defence 1.30, drawn from 56/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 50% | Draw 24% | Motor Lublin 26%, with Puszcza Niepołomice to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Motor Lublin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 32%, Motor Lublin 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Motor Lublin's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Motor Lublin arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights