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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 23

Kick-off

Sun 2 Mar 2025

11:15

Venue

Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Puszcza Niepołomice Win

50%

Puszcza Niepołomice

2.00

24%

Draw

4.19

26%

Motor Lublin

3.83

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.2%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

9.6%

Home win

2 – 1

9.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.71

Puszcza Niepołomice xG

Total xG

2.88

1.17

Motor Lublin xG

50%
24%
26%
Puszcza NiepołomiceDrawMotor Lublin

2.00

50%

Home win

4.19

24%

Draw

3.83

26%

Away win

Goals Markets

78%

Over 1.5

1.28

22%

Under 1.5

4.55

55%

Over 2.5

1.82

45%

Under 2.5

2.22

33%

Over 3.5

3.03

67%

Under 3.5

1.49

17%

Over 4.5

5.88

83%

Under 4.5

1.20

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

57%

BTTS Yes

1.77

43%

BTTS No

2.30

Clean Sheet

31%

Puszcza Niepołomice

3.23

18%

Motor Lublin

5.55

Win to Nil

16%

Puszcza Niepołomice

6.44

5%

Motor Lublin

21.26

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.6 6.5 3.8 1.5 0.4 0.1
1 9.6 11.2 6.6 2.6 0.8 0.2
2 8.2 9.6 5.6 2.2 0.6 0.2
3 4.7 5.5 3.2 1.3 0.4 0.1
4 2.0 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.2
5 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.713
λ Away (xG) 1.171
Total xG 2.884
League avg home goals 1.378
League avg away goals 1.166
Puszcza Niepołomice attack strength 0.958
Puszcza Niepołomice defence strength 1.122
Motor Lublin attack strength 0.895
Motor Lublin defence strength 1.298
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 56 / 22