Puszcza Niepołomice 0-1 Motor Lublin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Puszcza Niepołomice at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Puszcza Niepołomice vs Motor Lublin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach plays host to Puszcza Niepołomice versus Motor Lublin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 2 March 2025 at 11:15 UTC.
Current Form
Puszcza Niepołomice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Puszcza Niepołomice at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Motor Lublin have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D D L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Motor Lublin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Motor Lublin's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Puszcza Niepołomice, 1.70 for Motor Lublin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Puszcza Niepołomice have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Motor Lublin in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Puszcza Niepołomice 0W, Motor Lublin 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Puszcza Niepołomice half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Motor Lublin half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Puszcza Niepołomice 41% versus Motor Lublin 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Puszcza Niepołomice 32% | Motor Lublin 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 1.71 xG and Motor Lublin 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.958 / defence 1.122 | Motor Lublin attack 0.895 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.166. Motor Lublin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.298 — this is suppressing Puszcza Niepołomice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Puszcza Niepołomice games / 22 Motor Lublin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 50% | Draw 24% | Motor Lublin 26%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Motor Lublin 3.85. Puszcza Niepołomice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Puszcza Niepołomice are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Puszcza Niepołomice if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Puszcza Niepołomice 60% | Motor Lublin 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Motor Lublin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Mar 2025, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 50% | Draw 24% | Motor Lublin 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Puszcza Niepołomice 1.71 / Motor Lublin 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.958 / def 1.122 | Motor Lublin attack 0.895 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Puszcza Niepołomice (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Motor Lublin xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Puszcza Niepołomice vs Motor Lublin kick off?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Motor Lublin kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach.
What was the final score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Motor Lublin?
Puszcza Niepołomice 0 - 1 Motor Lublin.
Where is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Motor Lublin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach.
What competition is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Motor Lublin part of?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Motor Lublin is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Puszcza Niepołomice vs Motor Lublin?
Our statistical model gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 50% chance of winning, Motor Lublin a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Puszcza Niepołomice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Motor Lublin?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Puszcza Niepołomice and Motor Lublin will score (BTTS).
Will Puszcza Niepołomice vs Motor Lublin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Motor Lublin?
Record (1 meetings): Puszcza Niepołomice 0W | Draws 1 | Motor Lublin 0W.
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Motor Lublin in?
Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Motor Lublin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Puszcza Niepołomice's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Motor Lublin's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — Motor Lublin's attack (0.90x) against Puszcza Niepołomice's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 56/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Puszcza Niepołomice Win
50%
2.00
24%
4.19
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Total xG
2.88
1.17
Motor Lublin xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
5%
21.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.2 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Motor Lublin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Puszcza Niepołomice and Motor Lublin expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.17 for Motor Lublin, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Motor Lublin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 22 outings, Puszcza Niepołomice have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 5W 7D 10L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Puszcza Niepołomice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Motor Lublin's form line: 9W 5D 8L from 22 games, 1.45 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W. The sample for Motor Lublin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Motor Lublin are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Puszcza Niepołomice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Puszcza Niepołomice have posted 1.30 PPG from 10 outings (3W 4D 3L).
On the road, Motor Lublin have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Puszcza Niepołomice are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Motor Lublin are on 1.41 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
Motor Lublin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Motor Lublin in coming into this match?
Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 5W 7D 10L in their last 22 games (1.00 PPG), while Motor Lublin have gone 9W 5D 8L in their last 22 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Puszcza Niepołomice at home or Motor Lublin away?
Puszcza Niepołomice's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Puszcza Niepołomice at home: 1.30 PPG; Motor Lublin away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Puszcza Niepołomice
1
Draws
1
Motor Lublin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Motor Lublin?
From 2 meetings on record, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, Motor Lublin have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Puszcza Niepołomice and Motor Lublin last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Puszcza Niepołomice 0-1 Motor Lublin.
Who has won more matches between Puszcza Niepołomice and Motor Lublin?
Motor Lublin have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Motor Lublin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Puszcza Niepołomice 60%, Motor Lublin 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Puszcza Niepołomice and 70% for Motor Lublin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Motor Lublin in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Puszcza Niepołomice home games / Motor Lublin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Puszcza Niepołomice play Motor Lublin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Puszcza Niepołomice's games and 60% of Motor Lublin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Motor Lublin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Puszcza Niepołomice's matches and 70% of Motor Lublin's.
Do Puszcza Niepołomice and Motor Lublin tend to score early?
Puszcza Niepołomice have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Motor Lublin in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Motor Lublin defy the odds to beat Puszcza Niepołomice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Motor Lublin beat Puszcza Niepołomice 0-1 at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 1.71 xG and Motor Lublin 1.17 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Puszcza Niepołomice fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.96 / defence 1.12 against Motor Lublin attack 0.90 / defence 1.30, drawn from 56/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 50% | Draw 24% | Motor Lublin 26%, with Puszcza Niepołomice to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Motor Lublin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 32%, Motor Lublin 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Motor Lublin's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Motor Lublin arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.