Puszcza Niepołomice 4-1 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Puszcza Niepołomice at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 5 as Puszcza Niepołomice welcome Lechia Gdansk to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 August 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Puszcza Niepołomice stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Puszcza Niepołomice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 3W 7D 0L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lechia Gdansk — All Games: 0W 2D 2L from 4 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 1.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Lechia Gdansk have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Puszcza Niepołomice are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Puszcza Niepołomice in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Lechia Gdansk in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Puszcza Niepołomice 50% and Lechia Gdansk 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Puszcza Niepołomice 50% | Lechia Gdansk 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 1.84 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.137 / defence 1.118 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.886 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.110. Lechia Gdansk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Puszcza Niepołomice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Puszcza Niepołomice games / 4 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 54% | Draw 25% | Lechia Gdansk 22%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Lechia Gdansk 4.55. Puszcza Niepołomice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Puszcza Niepołomice at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Puszcza Niepołomice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Puszcza Niepołomice 80% | Lechia Gdansk 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 16 Aug 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 54% | Draw 25% | Lechia Gdansk 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Puszcza Niepołomice 1.84 / Lechia Gdansk 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.137 / def 1.118 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.886 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Puszcza Niepołomice (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Lechia Gdansk xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 16 August 2024 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk?
Puszcza Niepołomice 4 - 1 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 54% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Puszcza Niepołomice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Puszcza Niepołomice and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Lechia Gdansk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Lechia Gdansk in?
Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.75 | L5 D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Puszcza Niepołomice's attack at 1.14x the league average against Lechia Gdansk's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lechia Gdansk's attack versus Puszcza Niepołomice's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Puszcza Niepołomice Win
54%
1.87
25%
4.01
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Total xG
2.94
1.10
Lechia Gdansk xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
16%
6.28
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
3%
29.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.7 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Puszcza Niepołomice and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.10 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Puszcza Niepołomice's recent record stands at 0W 2D 2L from 4 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with L-D-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lechia Gdansk, meanwhile, have gone 0W 2D 2L across 4 games — 0.50 PPG, with D-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Puszcza Niepołomice on 0.50 PPG, Lechia Gdansk on 0.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Puszcza Niepołomice are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 0.75 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Puszcza Niepołomice
Early Season
Lechia Gdansk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Puszcza Niepołomice and Lechia Gdansk runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Puszcza Niepołomice
0
Draws
0
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Lechia Gdansk?
From 2 meetings on record, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 2, Lechia Gdansk have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Puszcza Niepołomice and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Lechia Gdansk 0-2 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Who has won more matches between Puszcza Niepołomice and Lechia Gdansk?
Puszcza Niepołomice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Puszcza Niepołomice see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Lechia Gdansk see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Puszcza Niepołomice 50%, Lechia Gdansk 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Puszcza Niepołomice) and 25% (Lechia Gdansk).
On the defensive side: Puszcza Niepołomice have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Puszcza Niepołomice home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Puszcza Niepołomice play Lechia Gdansk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Puszcza Niepołomice's games and 75% of Lechia Gdansk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent games and 25% of Lechia Gdansk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Puszcza Niepołomice run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Lechia Gdansk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Puszcza Niepołomice beat Lechia Gdansk 4-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 1.84 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.10 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Puszcza Niepołomice beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.14 / defence 1.12 against Lechia Gdansk attack 0.89 / defence 1.25, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 54% | Draw 25% | Lechia Gdansk 22%, with Puszcza Niepołomice to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 50%, Lechia Gdansk 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Puszcza Niepołomice 0.50 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Puszcza Niepołomice win broke the near-deadlock. Puszcza Niepołomice scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Lechia Gdansk shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.