Puszcza Niepołomice vs Jagiellonia – Match Report

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Puszcza Niepołomice and Jagiellonia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 18, as Puszcza Niepołomice and Jagiellonia drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 1.38 xG and Jagiellonia 1.56 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.02 / defence 1.06 against Jagiellonia attack 1.22 / defence 0.92, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 34% | Draw 25% | Jagiellonia 42%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 37%, Jagiellonia 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Jagiellonia's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights