Puszcza Niepołomice vs Jagiellonia – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Puszcza Niepołomice's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (1.22x) against Puszcza Niepołomice's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
34%
2.97
25%
4.06
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Total xG
2.93
1.56
Jagiellonia xG
2.97
34%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
7%
14.07
11%
9.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Puszcza Niepołomice and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.56 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.