Puszcza Niepołomice 1-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Jagiellonia (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Puszcza Niepołomice face Jagiellonia.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Puszcza Niepołomice and Jagiellonia meet at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 December 2024 at 13:45 UTC.
Current Form
Puszcza Niepołomice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Puszcza Niepołomice's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Puszcza Niepołomice are significantly better at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Jagiellonia (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W D D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Jagiellonia are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Puszcza Niepołomice 0W, Jagiellonia 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2024, ended 0–2 with Jagiellonia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Puszcza Niepołomice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Jagiellonia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Puszcza Niepołomice 53% versus Jagiellonia 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Puszcza Niepołomice 37% | Jagiellonia 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 1.38 xG and Jagiellonia 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.019 / defence 1.062 | Jagiellonia attack 1.216 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.204. Jagiellonia have an above-average attack strength of 1.216 — the away xG of 1.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Puszcza Niepołomice games / 51 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 34% | Draw 25% | Jagiellonia 42%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Jagiellonia 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Puszcza Niepołomice 40% | Jagiellonia 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 34% | Draw 25% | Jagiellonia 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Puszcza Niepołomice 1.38 / Jagiellonia 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.019 / def 1.062 | Jagiellonia attack 1.216 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Jagiellonia xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Puszcza Niepołomice vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Jagiellonia?
Puszcza Niepołomice 1 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Jagiellonia part of?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Puszcza Niepołomice vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 34% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Puszcza Niepołomice and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Puszcza Niepołomice vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Jagiellonia?
Record (3 meetings): Puszcza Niepołomice 0W | Draws 1 | Jagiellonia 2W.
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Jagiellonia in?
Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Jagiellonia (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Puszcza Niepołomice vs Jagiellonia?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Puszcza Niepołomice's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (1.22x) against Puszcza Niepołomice's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
34%
2.97
25%
4.06
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Total xG
2.93
1.56
Jagiellonia xG
2.97
34%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
7%
14.07
11%
9.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Puszcza Niepołomice and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.56 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Puszcza Niepołomice come into this having played 51 games, going 13W 18D 20L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Puszcza Niepołomice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.90 PPG from 51 outings (28W 13D 10L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Puszcza Niepołomice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Puszcza Niepołomice's home form reads 10W 11D 4L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Puszcza Niepołomice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 1.60 points per game from 25 outings (11W 7D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Puszcza Niepołomice are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 2.12 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 67%.
Last 51 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 13W 18D 20L in their last 51 games (1.12 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 28W 13D 10L in their last 51 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Puszcza Niepołomice at home or Jagiellonia away?
Puszcza Niepołomice's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Puszcza Niepołomice at home: 1.64 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 4-1 on 29 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Puszcza Niepołomice
2
Draws
2
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Jagiellonia?
From 4 meetings on record, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, Jagiellonia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Puszcza Niepołomice and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2024, when Puszcza Niepołomice 1-1 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Puszcza Niepołomice and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Puszcza Niepołomice, 72% for Jagiellonia — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Puszcza Niepołomice) and 68% (Jagiellonia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Puszcza Niepołomice home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Puszcza Niepołomice play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Puszcza Niepołomice's games and 72% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Puszcza Niepołomice's matches and 68% of Jagiellonia's.
Do Puszcza Niepołomice and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Puszcza Niepołomice have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Puszcza Niepołomice and Jagiellonia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 18, as Puszcza Niepołomice and Jagiellonia drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 1.38 xG and Jagiellonia 1.56 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.02 / defence 1.06 against Jagiellonia attack 1.22 / defence 0.92, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 34% | Draw 25% | Jagiellonia 42%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 37%, Jagiellonia 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.