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Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Zaglebie Lubin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pogon Szczecin beat Zaglebie Lubin 5-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.71 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.19 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.15 / defence 1.12 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.84 / defence 0.91, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 48% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 25%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 56%, Zaglebie Lubin 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.50 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights