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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 16

Kick-off

Mon 24 Nov 2025

18:00

Venue

Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Pogon Szczecin Win

48%

Pogon Szczecin

2.10

28%

Draw

3.59

25%

Zaglebie Lubin

4.06

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.2%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.6%

Home win

1 – 0

9.4%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.71

Pogon Szczecin xG

Total xG

2.89

1.19

Zaglebie Lubin xG

48%
28%
25%
Pogon SzczecinDrawZaglebie Lubin

2.10

48%

Home win

3.59

28%

Draw

4.06

25%

Away win

Goals Markets

78%

Over 1.5

1.28

22%

Under 1.5

4.55

55%

Over 2.5

1.82

45%

Under 2.5

2.22

33%

Over 3.5

3.03

67%

Under 3.5

1.49

17%

Over 4.5

5.88

83%

Under 4.5

1.20

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

59%

BTTS Yes

1.70

41%

BTTS No

2.43

Clean Sheet

30%

Pogon Szczecin

3.28

18%

Zaglebie Lubin

5.51

Win to Nil

14%

Pogon Szczecin

6.90

4%

Zaglebie Lubin

22.36

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.5 6.6 3.9 1.5 0.5 0.1
1 9.4 11.2 6.7 2.6 0.8 0.2
2 8.1 9.6 5.7 2.3 0.7 0.2
3 4.6 5.4 3.2 1.3 0.4 0.1
4 2.0 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.2
5 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.706
λ Away (xG) 1.188
Total xG 2.894
League avg home goals 1.622
League avg away goals 1.253
Pogon Szczecin attack strength 1.153
Pogon Szczecin defence strength 1.123
Zaglebie Lubin attack strength 0.844
Zaglebie Lubin defence strength 0.913
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 49 / 48