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Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Zaglebie Lubin 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pogon Szczecin beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.64 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.90 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Zaglebie Lubin landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.05 / defence 0.88 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.88 / defence 1.10, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 54% | Draw 26% | Zaglebie Lubin 20%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 48%, Zaglebie Lubin 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.58 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights