Pogon Szczecin 5-3 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pogon Szczecin host Slask Wroclaw at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pogon Szczecin stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pogon Szczecin's home record at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera than their overall form suggests.
Slask Wroclaw — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Slask Wroclaw have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slask Wroclaw's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pogon Szczecin 1.70 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Pogon Szczecin, 3 for Slask Wroclaw and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 1–0 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Pogon Szczecin in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Slask Wroclaw in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 41% versus Slask Wroclaw 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 49% | Slask Wroclaw 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.43 xG and Slask Wroclaw 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.191 / defence 0.724 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.817 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.088. Pogon Szczecin's defence rating of 0.724 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Pogon Szczecin games / 39 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 54% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 15%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.85 | Draw 3.23 | Slask Wroclaw 6.67. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 20% | Slask Wroclaw 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 54% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 38% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.43 / Slask Wroclaw 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.191 / def 0.724 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.817 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Slask Wroclaw xG
38%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Pogon Szczecin 5 - 3 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 54% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 15% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (6 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 2W | Draws 1 | Slask Wroclaw 3W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pogon Szczecin's attack at 1.19x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
54%
1.85
31%
3.23
15%
6.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.07
0.64
Slask Wroclaw xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
6.72
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
28%
3.51
4%
27.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 11.6 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.64 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 18W 8D 13L from 39 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slask Wroclaw, meanwhile, have gone 18W 13D 8L across 39 games — 1.72 PPG, with D-L-D-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pogon Szczecin on 1.59 PPG, Slask Wroclaw on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 11W 2D 6L from 19 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slask Wroclaw's away record stands at 9W 6D 4L across 19 trips, a 1.74 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.36 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Slask Wroclaw in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
Slask Wroclaw
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 18W 8D 13L in their last 39 games (1.59 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 18W 13D 8L in their last 39 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.84 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Slask Wroclaw been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Slask Wroclaw in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Slask Wroclaw specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Pogon Szczecin
2
Draws
3
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw?
From 8 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, Slask Wroclaw have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2025, when Slask Wroclaw 1-1 Pogon Szczecin.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Slask Wroclaw see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 42%, Slask Wroclaw 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Pogon Szczecin) and 42% (Slask Wroclaw).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Slask Wroclaw in 42%; Slask Wroclaw in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Slask Wroclaw?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 47% of Slask Wroclaw's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 42% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over Slask Wroclaw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Slask Wroclaw 5-3 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.43 xG and Slask Wroclaw 0.64 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Slask Wroclaw outscored their 0.64 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.19 / defence 0.72 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.82 / defence 0.85, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 54% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 15%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 49%, Slask Wroclaw 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.59 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.