Radomiak Radom 2-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Cracovia Krakow (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Radomiak Radom face Cracovia Krakow.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow meet at Stadion Radomiaka in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 August 2024 at 19:15 UTC.

Form

Radomiak Radom (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Radomiak Radom's home record at Stadion Radomiaka: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cracovia Krakow are 1.30 PPG clear of Radomiak Radom in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.90 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to Cracovia Krakow, who have claimed 5 wins from 6 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 0–6 with Cracovia Krakow winning.

It is worth noting that Cracovia Krakow have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading

Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.

Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 51% versus Cracovia Krakow 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 56% | Cracovia Krakow 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.10 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.951 / defence 1.401 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.322 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.047. Cracovia Krakow have an above-average attack strength of 1.322 — the away xG of 1.94 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Radomiak Radom games / 40 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 20% | Draw 25% | Cracovia Krakow 55%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 5.00 | Draw 4.00 | Cracovia Krakow 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Cracovia Krakow (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 70% | Cracovia Krakow 40% BTTS from recent games.

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