Pogon Szczecin 5-0 Ruch Chorzów – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Ruch Chorzów encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Ruch Chorzów travel to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to take on Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Friday 12 April 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Pogon Szczecin stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Pogon Szczecin have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ruch Chorzów — last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ruch Chorzów away from home: 0W 6D 4L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Pogon Szczecin have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Pogon Szczecin's last 10 home games and Ruch Chorzów's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Pogon Szczecin, 0 for Ruch Chorzów and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Pogon Szczecin 3–0 Ruch Chorzów — a Pogon Szczecin win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Ruch Chorzów trading profile (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 48% versus Ruch Chorzów 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 52% | Ruch Chorzów 48%). Note also that Ruch Chorzów surrender HT leads in 67% of cases while Pogon Szczecin recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 2.08 xG and Ruch Chorzów 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.289 / defence 1.311 | Ruch Chorzów attack 0.959 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.104. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack rating of 1.289 — their 2.08 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Pogon Szczecin's defence rating of 1.311 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ruch Chorzów's projected output up. Data: built from Pogon Szczecin's last 61 games and Ruch Chorzów's last 27.
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 52% | Draw 24% | Ruch Chorzów 24%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.93 | Draw 4.10 | Ruch Chorzów 4.19. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (2.08 / 1.39) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.46 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pogon Szczecin's last 10 home games and Ruch Chorzów's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pogon Szczecin 80% (last 10 home games) | Ruch Chorzów 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Ruch Chorzów | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Friday 12 April 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 52% | Draw 24% | Ruch Chorzów 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Pogon Szczecin 2.08 / Ruch Chorzów 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.289 / def 1.311 | Ruch Chorzów attack 0.959 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Ruch Chorzów xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Ruch Chorzów FAQs
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Ruch Chorzów kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Ruch Chorzów kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 12 April 2024 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Ruch Chorzów?
Pogon Szczecin 5 - 0 Ruch Chorzów.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Ruch Chorzów being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Ruch Chorzów part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Ruch Chorzów is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 28) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Ruch Chorzów?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 52% chance of winning, Ruch Chorzów a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Ruch Chorzów?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Ruch Chorzów will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Ruch Chorzów have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (1.29) and Ruch Chorzów's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 2.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ruch Chorzów's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pogon Szczecin's last 61 games and Ruch Chorzów's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
52%
1.93
24%
4.10
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.46
1.39
Ruch Chorzów xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
13%
7.96
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
3%
33.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Ruch Chorzów Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Ruch Chorzów?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Ruch Chorzów expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.39 for Ruch Chorzów, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Ruch Chorzów?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Pogon Szczecin have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 13W 5D 9L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Ruch Chorzów's form line: 2W 14D 11L from 27 games, 0.74 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Pogon Szczecin are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ruch Chorzów.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pogon Szczecin have posted 1.54 PPG from their last 13 home games (6W 2D 5L).
On the road, Ruch Chorzów have gone 0W 7D 6L from their last 13 away games — 0.54 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Ruch Chorzów are on 1.07 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Ruch Chorzów
Blended
Pogon Szczecin (Home) vs Ruch Chorzów (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Ruch Chorzów
Blended
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Ruch Chorzów Form FAQs
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Ruch Chorzów in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 13W 5D 9L in their last 27 games (1.63 PPG), while Ruch Chorzów have gone 2W 14D 11L in their last 27 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Ruch Chorzów away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.54 PPG; Ruch Chorzów away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 12 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Pogon Szczecin
0
Draws
0
Ruch Chorzów
Recent Meetings
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Ruch Chorzów H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Ruch Chorzów?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, Ruch Chorzów have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Ruch Chorzów last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2024: Pogon Szczecin 5-0 Ruch Chorzów.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Ruch Chorzów?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Ruch Chorzów are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pogon Szczecin at 69%, Ruch Chorzów at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Pogon Szczecin and 54% for Ruch Chorzów. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ruch Chorzów in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Ruch Chorzów away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Ruch Chorzów Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pogon Szczecin and Ruch Chorzów matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 69% of Ruch Chorzów's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pogon Szczecin and Ruch Chorzów matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 54% of Ruch Chorzów's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Ruch Chorzów matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 92% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 85% of Ruch Chorzów's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Ruch Chorzów.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Ruch Chorzów 5-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 2.08 xG and Ruch Chorzów 1.39 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ruch Chorzów landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.29 / defence 1.31 against Ruch Chorzów attack 0.96 / defence 1.14, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 52% | Draw 24% | Ruch Chorzów 24%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 52%, Ruch Chorzów 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Ruch Chorzów's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.74. Form held, and they took the win. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line. Ruch Chorzów (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.