ŁKS Łódź 3-2 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this ŁKS Łódź vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz to face ŁKS Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 April 2024 at 11:30 UTC.

Form

ŁKS Łódź (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ŁKS Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, ŁKS Łódź have posted 1W 5D 4L at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Radomiak Radom have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for ŁKS Łódź, 1 for Radomiak Radom and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 0–3 with Radomiak Radom winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

ŁKS Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ŁKS Łódź 48% versus Radomiak Radom 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ŁKS Łódź 52% | Radomiak Radom 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects ŁKS Łódź 1.35 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.833 / defence 1.389 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.033 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.076. Data: 27 ŁKS Łódź games / 61 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 31% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 39%. Fair-value odds: ŁKS Łódź 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Radomiak Radom 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: ŁKS Łódź 60% | Radomiak Radom 40%.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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