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Pogon Szczecin cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Raków Częstochowa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pogon Szczecin beat Raków Częstochowa 2-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.61 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.48 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.14 / defence 1.12 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.07 / defence 0.89, drawn from 40/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 41% | Draw 24% | Raków Częstochowa 35%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 55%, Raków Częstochowa 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.61 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights