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Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Raków Częstochowa 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pogon Szczecin beat Raków Częstochowa 1-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.20 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.20 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Raków Częstochowa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.35 / defence 0.90 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.10 / defence 0.60, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 36% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 36%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 52%, Raków Częstochowa 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.65 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights