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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 29

Kick-off

Sat 19 Apr 2025

19:15

Venue

Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Pogon Szczecin Win

36%

Pogon Szczecin

2.76

28%

Draw

3.62

36%

Raków Częstochowa

2.77

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

13.1%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

10.9%

Home win

0 – 1

10.8%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.20

Pogon Szczecin xG

Total xG

2.40

1.20

Raków Częstochowa xG

36%
28%
36%
Pogon SzczecinDrawRaków Częstochowa

2.76

36%

Home win

3.62

28%

Draw

2.77

36%

Away win

Goals Markets

69%

Over 1.5

1.45

31%

Under 1.5

3.23

43%

Over 2.5

2.33

57%

Under 2.5

1.75

22%

Over 3.5

4.55

78%

Under 3.5

1.28

10%

Over 4.5

10.00

90%

Under 4.5

1.11

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

49%

BTTS Yes

2.04

51%

BTTS No

1.96

Clean Sheet

30%

Pogon Szczecin

3.32

30%

Raków Częstochowa

3.33

Win to Nil

11%

Pogon Szczecin

9.15

11%

Raków Częstochowa

9.24

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.0 10.8 6.5 2.6 0.8 0.2
1 10.9 13.1 7.8 3.1 0.9 0.2
2 6.5 7.9 4.7 1.9 0.6 0.1
3 2.6 3.2 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.1
4 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1
5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.204
λ Away (xG) 1.200
Total xG 2.404
League avg home goals 1.476
League avg away goals 1.210
Pogon Szczecin attack strength 1.355
Pogon Szczecin defence strength 0.904
Raków Częstochowa attack strength 1.098
Raków Częstochowa defence strength 0.602
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 62 / 62